Wednesday, July 21, 2004

Dem prospects may be brighter than you think (barring electoral "disruption")

Ted at Crooked Timber has an interesting collection of quotes from around the blogosphere which suggest just that.  For anyone paying much attention to polling data, which Daily Kos has in abundant supply -- half of the reason I visit there -- this should come as no surprise; key states such as PA and FL have tilted towards Kerry recently, and Bush's numbers have degraded even in the likes of AZ and NC.  Conventional wisdom is that those latter states will ultimately go for Bush but may require the diversion of resources. 

In the comments, Utah's Matt Weiner (Pitt philosophy '03)  links to a study by Princeton molecular biology prof Sam Wang that gives an astonishing 98% chance for Kerry.   Damned lies and statistics, etc.;  I'm not sure there's that much reason for optimism (even with Edwards on the ticket, heh) but it's an interesting page nonetheless.

The same page gives information on PA-6, the district in which I'm registered, where Gerlach faces a stiff challenge from Lois Murphy.  Republican redistricting (some might call it gerrymandering) transformed this district from the combination of Berks and Schuylkill counties into a salamander that starts in the Philly suburbs and extends into Reading.  (Thus Berks is split into several districts.  The former PA-6 incumbent, Blue Dog Dem Rep. Tim Holden, pulled out an upset victory over Republican Rep. Gekas two years ago in PA-17.) 

Barely a few days after the '02 election,  I sat in a computer lab next to a girl whose father, as I overheard, was Gerlach... the man against whom I voted.   If you want another, less interesting, coincidence, Dr. Wang has on his homepage material on the two photon method, with which someone in my lab was working before he decided he couldn't pull off his project without ordering expensive equipment. 


Blogger eigenwill said...

You know, for most of you that last coincidence probably isn't interesting at all.

July 21, 2004 at 5:01 PM  

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